I am playing Londyn City in the league, I simulated the match with my 3-4-3 not at its best but still higher rated I presume and worth more than his team and I lost the majority of the sims (which I know aren't a 100% what you should rely on) so I changed my formation to 5-3-2 to match him, again not my strongest team with injuries but worth more than his so I assume around the same rating. I lost all 5 sims, I thought it was a fluke so I did it again and lost all 5 sims. How does this work? He has one great midfielder, but the rest of his team is pretty average.

Well, I don't care lost on simulation. Won on the real match. Much better then vica-versa. Simulation is hardly unreliable.

If you lose all your simulations you may still win the real match, but it's not a good sign. There are many reasons you could lose though, it's impossible to say without more information.

I lost 4-1 playing 3-4-3 by the way, it's not that I'm annoyed, I love this game, just I'd like to know why I lost.

I had a noticeably higher average value than my opponents last year, but ended up falling to fifth after dominating in my first season.

Some of the reasons I think I struggled last season were that: 1) I was substituting in my weaker players too often to get them experience.
2) I was spending too much experience on tactics and secondary attributes. My players had very good values, but were not much better with regard to their primary attributes.
I am not substituting in prospects as often this season and have mostly finished training tactics and have had more success (though I am still only winning by one or two goals).

Perhaps you might have had similar problems.

Thanks, that is helpful.

@Ulysses
That makes sense. However look at this. My squad rating is 2.7, his is 2.3. I tried most of the line ups however his team is stilling winning on points and goals.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/33dh8vb.jpg
http://oi42.tinypic.com/2pyxlkx.jpg

The other thing that doesnt make sense is that Im winning in every category (tackles won, direct shots, passes completed, etc). So my question is, is it simulation bug or reality? Because the simulation doesnt really make sense, when you outplay your opponent in every category, you expect to win games...

Though I see one possible explanation, his keeper is really good and my keeper is bad but that coudnlt be true, could it? Anyways thanks for help.

@denisgrad: a good keeper is important. If his keeper is much better than yours it won't affect the average value much since the keeper is only one guy but it's an important one.

It would also explain why you have more shots but less goals. A better keeper will stop more shots than a weak one.

You don't win because you get more shots at goal or more passes completed, only goals count.