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English >> Questions
Penalty shoot-out (13)
This might be a daft question, but is there anything I can do about the settings for penalty shoot-outs, because I haven't been able to find that. And for some reason it seems that no matter what happens, I will lose any shoot-out. So maybe I'm doing something wrong.
https://rockingsoccer.com/ro/fotbal/help/home/category-1/article-2
There's always something you haven't read. 
But then looking at today's upcoming opponent I don't really understand why I would lose the shoot-out every time. Does home advantage still apply there, because that would be slightly unfair in my view.
I'm talking about the match simulations, to clarify.
For one thing, his keeper has Penalty Stopper and yours doesn't. :)
Well spotted, but would that really justify a 100 percent loss rate? There must be more to that, I reckon.
It doesn't really answer my question about home advantage, though.
No idea about home advantage, although unless stated otherwise in the help files, why wouldn't it apply?
The keepers have to be the largest factor in any penalty shoot-out. So if they are otherwise similar I would suggest that having Penalty Stopper has to be a big advantage.
As to a 100% loss rate ... quoting statistics is irrelevant without stating the sample size. 100% can be 1 out of 1, 10 out of 10 or 200 out of 200. The probability varies hugely with the sample size.
It would probably be better to compare the total penalties taken. That would give you much more data for the comparison - and it surely won't be 100%.
Clearly, it wasn't 1 in 1. I'm an economist so I know a thing or two about statistics. Also, the slightly condescending tone doesn't flatter anyone. Maybe I framed my question in such a way that it may have been tiresome to read, but then don't read it.
My sample size (which clearly couldn't have been 200) would have been somewhere in the region of 20 to 25 and after my last comment I did manage a single win. So it would be a losing percentage of 95 per cent or above. Still not enough data points to get to statistical significance, but it seems increasingly unlikely to be a quirk.
Joddit, I'm sorry, there was no intention on my part to be rude or condescending. I'm genuinely trying to help.
I wasn't suggesting you had a sample size of 200, the only reason I quoted those numbers was by way of explanation. As an economist you're obviously aware of how easily people misuse statistics. Just saying 100% tells me nothing without knowing the sample size.
I had no idea how many penalty shoot-outs you'd had ... and I'm surprised you've 20-25 penalty shootouts in your reports. As you say getting 100% from 20 shoot-outs is very different than getting it from 3.
The other team appears to have a definite advantage, and that looks much bigger with more shoot-outs.
Edit
Just to put some numbers on it.
If both teams had an equal chance of winning the shoot-out then the probability of losing 3 out of 3 would be 0.125. The chance of losing 20 in a row would be 1 in a million. The chance of winning 1 in 20 would be 1 in 50,000. (I think that's correct!)
So I would say 1 in 50,000 is significant and essentially proves the point that you have less than a 50% chance of winning the shoot-out.
Maybe I climbed on my high horse a little bit too quickly and I do appreciate feedback so let's start over. 
You're right that many people don't really understand statistics, usually blissfully unaware of the hole in their knowledge and to be fair they are quite difficult to apply properly.
As for the high number of penalty shoot-outs. My opponent used to be in the same league as myself, before I got promoted, so I have played him/her quite a few times in the past. I don't think I've ever been able to beat him/her away from home. It usually ends in a draw. That's why I have been very focused on the outcome of the penalties from the very first simulation (besides obviously tweaking my strategy to try and prevent that from happening). Also, as mentioned before, draws happen a lot, on average between 2 and 4 times in every simulation And one time it actually resulted in five 0-0 draws, losing all five of the shoot-outs. Based on those figures, winning only one of those shoot-outs, I would postulate the hypothesis that home advantage does still apply in the shoot-out and it seems to work wonders.
It seems unlikely that I will survive this round. 
Edit: In terms of statistical significance it doesn't really work that way. And I would consider that to be a somewhat complicated way to show that it wouldn't behave as a coinflip. I would agree that it doesn't behave like a coinflip though, but we pretty much already knew that, since we are in a computer simulation here with quite a few variables.
As you say, home advantage may well be a factor. I'm inclined to think that Penalty Stopper is probably the main reason - 1 extra ball Blocking on a keeper seems pretty significant.
Given your reports I would suggest you need to try and go for the win, a high scoring game should give you a better chance of avoiding the draw.
I would agree with your last point. I would add that it would also be helpful to try and limit the number of defending set pieces.
Other than that, I should just hope for the best.
https://rockingsoccer.com/en/soccer/info/match-16075009
Well, the good news is that I didn't lose on penalties...
@Joddit
That's exactly something I can't tell, never. Seems that I tend to lose most of penalty-series.