Numpty >>

wednesday february 12 - 14:30, Edited

wednesday february 12 - 15:43 So, I've finally managed to produce what I believe is the correct formula for the Ageing Factor.

1. The Ageing Factor remains constant at 100% up until the age of 21 years 18 weeks.

2. Starting at 21y19w it declines at a rate of 1% every 30 weeks until the age of 25 years 49 weeks. Which is 1.7333% per season.

- AF = 1 - 0.001*(x/3) = where x is age in weeks greater than 21y18w

3. There is a noncontiguous change at age 25y50w, when the players ages by the equivalent of about 10 weeks.

4. From age 25y50w the AF declines at a rate of 3% every 65 weeks, which is 0.6% every 13 weeks, 0.0461538% per week, or 2.40% per season. This continues until the age of 29 years 51 weeks.

- AF = 0.916 - 0.03*(y/65) - where y is age in weeks greater than 26y00w

(Formula is based on 91.6% at age 26y00w for simplicity. Also use with the previous 2 weeks where the increment becomes positive.)

5. There is a further noncontiguous change at age 30 years 0 weeks, where the player gets younger by the equivalent of 3-4 weeks. Yes, younger!

6. From age 30 until 47 years 18 weeks the AF declines from 82.2% at a rate of 2% every 25 weeks, which is 0.08% per week and 4.16% per season.

- AF = 0.822 - 0.0008*z - where z is age in weeks greater than 30y00w

7. The Ageing Factor remains constant at 10.0% from the age of 47 years 19 weeks onwards.

(Eddie's formula, mentioned above, is very close but is not 100% accurate.)

I want to acknowledge the contribution of Sazz, who helped provide me with data for analysis.