Kupus >> wednesday october 31 - 10:16

I´m working on a market value prediction tool and currently collect data to support the logic.

It is a bit tricky though as the increase is not linear in any way but seems to increase dependent of star value in a way that follows a specific pattern.

But, what complicates it more is the fact of age and in this case age increase that has a negative impact on market value where it seems a week of age increase has a fixed value. Again, the fixed value is not linear but seems to follow a pattern different per position.

Is there anyone who knows the age penalty decrease logic or pattern per position?

holt >> thursday november 1 - 13:14

Use the Rocking Soccer Extention.

Kezza >> friday november 2 - 20:12, Edited friday november 2 - 20:14

Not sure if this is helpful or not, but this is the age brackets for each age. ie. for someone between the age 29y51w-29y42w they are at 82%, between 29y41-29y20w they are at 83% etc etc..

All positions decrease in the same way (age % wise)

29y51w 82
29y42w 82
29y41w 83
29y20w 83
29y19w 84
28y50w 84
28y49w 85
28y29w 85
28y28w 86
28y7w 86
28y6w 87
27y37w 87
27y36w 88
27y16w 88
27y15w 89
26y46w 89
26y45w 90
26y24w 90
26y23w 91
26y3w 91
26y2w 92
25y36w 92
25y35w 93
25y6w 93
25y5w 94
24y28w 94
24y27w 95
23y50w 95
23y49w 96
23y20w 96
23y19w 97
22y42w 97
22y41w 98
22y12w 98
22y11w 99
21y34w 99

Eddie >> saturday november 17 - 06:50

I used Rocking Soccer Extension to get the general idea of how to calculate the age factor and created a formula that seems to work at every age (extension almost worked, but only for age < 30). And it's the same for every position.

If age < 26.1 then the formula is (1.374-0.0175*age)

If above formula gives more than 1, than it's 1 -> 100% (young players)

If age < 30.1 then the formula is (1.54-0.024*age)

If age >= 30.1 then the formula is (2.07-0.0416*age)

Kupus >> saturday november 17 - 08:48

Thanks Eddie.

I suppose you refer to the training effectivity?

I do not think the market value follows the same logic.

Here I have seen 4 parameters so far (age, position, talent, star value) but struggle to find the logic.

Kupus >> saturday november 17 - 08:50

@Kezza

Thanks, but what I really look for is the formula for market value which does not correspond to same values as what you listed as there are multiple parameters to manage even before the age of 21.

Numpty >> saturday november 17 - 11:05, Edited saturday november 17 - 11:20

I would suggest that the best way to solve this kind of thing is to work on one variable at a time, by keeping all the others constant.

Firstly, identify all the variables. Are there any others in addition to the 4 that you have already listed? Special attributes maybe? 

Secondly, look at groups of players that are more or less identical in all variables other than the one in question. So, for instance, try and find a small group of players that are more or less the same age, same position, same talent, have no special attributes and vary only in star value. 

Edit - Another way to isolate the effect of star value is to take an older player with lots of experience and give him 10 position trainings, but save up all the xp until the final training has finished. 

Then finally "spend" all the xp in one go on the same day and note how the market value changes with his star value.  

Kupus >> saturday november 17 - 12:42

@Numpty

This is what I´m doing currently but it seems to be a specific and quite advacned formula so I work from the other end just as you described.

And as you say, there are more variables then the ones I listed as special attributes. That is also what makes this pretty complicated.

What I also consider is if there is flexible market value based on the valuations and sale price that automatically indicates player market value.

Eddie >> saturday november 17 - 18:41

Yeah, I just wrote a formula for age factor, as a response to Kezza's answer.

It would be hard to find the formula, there are many factors. Some specials give more value, fixed attributes, ...