Numpty >>
samedi mars 14 - 11:12, Modifié
samedi mars 14 - 12:11 @Kalle. It's difficult to balance benefit against risk. The children themselves appear to have very mild symptoms so are very low risk.
Closing schools will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the population. Many parents will need to take time off work, possibly from medical related and care jobs. Others will go to their grandparents who are in a higher risk group. The children will have lots of free time and still play with each other.
Here, in the UK, it's considered likely that we are about a month behind Italy in the spread.
The official view is that it will soon become widespread in the population and there's nothing that can be done to stop that happening. They estimate that there are probably 10 to 20 times more people currently infected than the number of confirmed cases. (798 confirmed as of Friday 13th March.)
So the government's plan is essentially to mitigate against the worst case. They fear that if it spreads quickly then the hospitals might be overwhelmed with serious cases and not be able to cope and more people will die if they can't be treated effectively.
So they hope to slow the spread of the virus so that it peaks in the summer months and that it has a lower peak which lasts over a longer period.
Currently we are in the very early stages and the risk to any one individual is still fairly low and most people are carrying on as normal. People are asked to be careful visiting the elderly and those with probable symptoms are being asked to self-isolate for a week, but there are no steps to close things down at present. Although many people are acting more cautiously in social situations and major sporting events have been cancelled rather than banned. However, a ban seems to be imminent.
One aspect of the government's advice is based on so-called behavioural science.
If they start closing things down too early then the whole country might potentially be in lockdown for months and then what are people going to instead? Children will still play with each other, people will still socialise and most people will get fed up and it will become less effective as time goes by. So they plan to have a shorter lockdown when things are getting much worse.
On a personal note I have a very close family member in a care home who is very vulnerable and if infected would likely not survive. I also have a daughter working as a hospital doctor.