Forumas: Anglų 
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Anglų >> Bendros diskusijos
Decided to Quit (14)
I've noticed that my BEST players get suspended, injured, or often BOTH before all important matches and ONLY before important matches.
I am an engineer with advanced mathematics knowledge and can tell you that even in the best-case scenario the probability of this happening is 1 in a billion.
This, of course, indicates 1 thing only. The game is rigged.
Please feel free to share your calculations.
If you're that confident you won't mind them being checked by peer review.
Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
(Terry Pratchett)
In my experience a lot of so-called experts make flaws when calculating probabilities. This is usually because their expertise is in another field and not in mathematics.
For instance, a medical expert decides that the probability of an infant dying in unusual circumstances is 1 in a million. This is a tragedy but not necessarily suspicious. 4 young children in the same family die in similar circumstances and the medical expert tells the courts that this is evidence that at least one of the parents is guilty of murder. The calculation that he does is 1 in (1 million )^4 = 10^24, which assumes that the deaths have no medical connection. The courts believe the expert witness and the mother is found guilty.
However, if the 4 children all had the same undiagnosed syndrome that was inherited from their parents then the deaths are related. Let's say the medical expert was correct about 1 in a million for the first child. But it's entirely possible that the chance of subsequent children inheriting the same genes from their parents is (say) 1/4, given that the first child already had it. In which case the calculation that the 3 subsequent children all have the same syndrome as the first one is 1 in 4^3 = 1 in 64.
And all 4 children having exactly the same syndrome is = 1 in 64 million. It's a tragedy but not a crime.
As for the 'expert witness' it's not his medical knowledge that was flawed, just his mathematical reasoning.
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However, in this case the poster is claiming to be an expert mathematician and I'm looking forward to a well-reasoned answer.
I can only do beginners' maths, so if there are any complicated equations I'll have to get @Siege to help out.
You have been here just 2 weeks.
Your most carded players have none Correct trained. Injuries can always happen but more when they are tired. All your main players are old and with low endurance so they get tired easier and so injures are easier to happen too. Your keeper is crap too (compare him with rivals!) and will concede most of shots that's why you lost today. Nothing rigged or wrong with game at your perspective(there are things that could be better ofcourse). No advanced math needed.
Should you get promoted there are big chances to go down at once with lot of big losses. So you should concentrate on facilities and try to keep team on upper half of third league as for beginning club TV-revenue is very important part of income. When losing most of games in League 2 you lose financially a lot. It's quite long-time building game. I played about 30 seasons before reaching to top league and about 20 more seasons to establish here.
why is it so hard for people to keep things short? i mean if you want to quit just quit! stop disturbing people who will post a full essay combined with maths and scientists just to reason with you..
siege has spoken!
@pii i didn't ask and look where am i now.. just let the guy improvise like i just did
@pii us? you and who?
ok.. now quit
@Numpty I see that this is the prosecutor's fallacy?
She committed suicide as well. Pretty grim as to how poor application of mathematics can end a life
I think the fallacy is called 'argument from authority', which goes something like this:
- Person A claims X to be true.
- Person A is or claims to be an expert.
- Therefore X must be true.
Simply put, "it's true because of who they are", is a fallacy.
It doesn't matter whether A is really an expert or just blagging it.
Although being a genuine expert should carry some weight history has shown that they can still be wrong. Truth is always based on facts, evidence and reason, and not on a person claiming something to be true simply because they are an expert. Authorities must be able to demonstrate their position or beliefs just like everyone else.
There is a related and opposite argument called 'ad hominem', which is a more commonly used fallacy. This argues that what a person says either cannot be true or doesn't even need to be considered because of who they are. This may be for many reasons: because they are disliked, not trusted, or considered inferior in some way.
Simply put, "it's false because of who they are", is also a fallacy.