Numpty >>
sâmbătă mai 18 - 09:10, Editat
sâmbătă mai 18 - 09:26 Joddit, I'm sorry, there was no intention on my part to be rude or condescending. I'm genuinely trying to help.
I wasn't suggesting you had a sample size of 200, the only reason I quoted those numbers was by way of explanation. As an economist you're obviously aware of how easily people misuse statistics. Just saying 100% tells me nothing without knowing the sample size.
I had no idea how many penalty shoot-outs you'd had ... and I'm surprised you've 20-25 penalty shootouts in your reports. As you say getting 100% from 20 shoot-outs is very different than getting it from 3.
The other team appears to have a definite advantage, and that looks much bigger with more shoot-outs.
Edit
Just to put some numbers on it.
If both teams had an equal chance of winning the shoot-out then the probability of losing 3 out of 3 would be 0.125. The chance of losing 20 in a row would be 1 in a million. The chance of winning 1 in 20 would be 1 in 50,000. (I think that's correct!)
So I would say 1 in 50,000 is significant and essentially proves the point that you have less than a 50% chance of winning the shoot-out.