SeanPat0 >> fredag april 24 - 22:58

Just to give people a heads-up, the Rocking Soccer United States World Cup qualification is heading to a do or die game, hosting Cuba on the 9th of May. And the current outlook is bleak, to make it to the next stage. But, make no mistake, there is a viable path, if things go right. And that is the catch, if things go right.

In a had to win game today, the National Team had to settle for a road tie, putting them into the driver's seat to win their group, but, not good enough to be one of the top six out of nine group winners. In fact, the team is ranked dead last amoung the group leaders.

But, there is a chance to still snag at least 6th place, if a lot of things fell into place. So, I am going to try to explain the chance this team has of finishing at least sixth place, and what need to happen to jump over certian teams.

But, I must explain a few quirks on this round of qualification. As I said, there are nine groups, but 35 teams, meaning all but one group has four teams in it, save Group 9 (which has the United States in it). In ranking the group leaders, all games in the home and away pairing of matches against the fourth place team are disregarded. That means that while all six games will be used to see who wins the group, only 4 of them will be used to determine the rankings of the group winners.

I am also assuming that this will follow normal tie breaking rule of goal differental, since there is no intergroup head to head match ups.

Also, the United States ( 5pt / 3 games / +2) must win against Cuba (5pt / 3 games / +1) after a 2 all draw in Cuba, or they will be eliminated on the spot. It is a do or die game.

With that, let's get to it then.

1st - Canada - 9pts / 3 games/ +6
2nd - Guadeloupe - 9pts / 3 games / +5 (8 GF)
3nd - Haiti - 9pts / 3 games / +5 (5 GF)

Chance to jump any of these teams with a win -> There is no chance.


Even with a win versus Cuba, the National Team will still have 8 points. Add into it that Captain Math says the nine is still greater than eight, and, well, you can see how this is not going to work out in the end.

4th - Honduras - 8pts / 4 games / +2

Chance to jump this team with a win -> Guaranteed.

This is a simple, but weird one. The team ranked the highest, yet still catchable is in fact the most vulnerable to getting passed by the National Team.

Well, it is simple. Honduras cannot improve there position themselves any more, having played their four games that will count towards the final group leader rankings, three points ahead, and tied on goal differental with the United States.

Now, I will note that Honduras has not clinched there group yet, and if the loss to cellar rooted Panama, then Jamicia could swoop in to take the group, but they would have 7 points in counted games, one shy of the United States.

5th - Guatemala (7pts / 3 games / +8)

Chance to jump this team with a win -> A Lloyd Christmas chance.

This would take a lot of unlilely things to happen for the United States to jump this position (note I did not say team, and I will explain)

Guatemala host St. Kitts for the return match, with a 1-1 draw being the first encounter. Both hold 13 point in total, and 7 points after removing Nicaragua. And if Nicaragua (0 pts) was to somehow upend Dominica (3pt) on the road, it would not really change much for both teams (in fact, St. Kitts goal differental would improve if Nicaragua could win that match bu 4 goals as the only real change).

So, which ever team wins, would end up with 10 points for the group winner's rankings, beating the United States out. If there was a tie, then it would come down to a battle of goal differental with Gautemala going into the final day superior to the United States by six goals.

But, there is still a chance.

6th - Aruba (7pts / 3 games / +3 (4 GF)

Chance to jump this team with a win -> Entering the Twilight Zone

This would be for the last advancement spot, and it comes with some very interesting strings attacted

Aruba is home to face Trinidad and Tobago, who are not trying to play spoilers, but with a victory, can win the group outright, giving them a chance to advance to the second round. A scenario that seems like the United States would like to see played out.

Except, there is the undercard match that can throw everything into chaos.

Puerto Rico hosts Antigua and Barbuda, both sitting of five points, with Antigua in the basement. The shenanagains come in with Trinidad dropping three points at Antigua, as well as two points at Puerto Rico. Aruba did manage a home win against Puerto Rico, they could only scrape 3 draws in the other contests against these two teams.

So, the best path for the United States would by a win by Trinidad and Puerto Rico with a win or tie. However, if Aruba does get a win, an Antigua win would cost Aruba two of those points leaving them with 8 (losing the 2-0 win over Puerto Rico) in the final ranking, turning it into a goal differental battle, what is doable right now.

You got all of that.

Now, can you say the best path is the likely outcome? Me either

7th - British Virgin Islands - (7pts / 3 games / 0)

Chance to jump this team with a win -> I wouldn't hold my breathe.

The defending World Cup champions are just on the outside looking in. They have clinched their group, and face second placed St. Lucia at home, a team they defeated 1-0.

So, the United States would need an upset, either a draw or St. Lucia win against a team with a single draw as its only blemmish, for the National Team to pass them, is asking for a lot. I see the British Virgin Islands as the team to take advantage of Honduras' dilemna.

8th - Bahamas (6pts / 3 games / +4)

Chance to jump this team with a win -> Better than you think.

Just looking at the Group 1 table, you think that there would be a lot of different permutations to work out, but, this is in reality, it is much simpler than that.

Bahamas , who won the first meeting 2-1 host the return meeting against 3rd place Bermuda (3pts), while the second place team, Mexico (6pts) see Grenada, a team that has dropped every point at home.

So, Mexico is stuck on their points where they stand, making the math a lot easier. Meaning it is mano y mono between Bahamas and Bermuda, where a tie or a Bermuda win would make the United States path easier.

With all of that, it looks like the six teams getting on would be Canada, Guadelope, Haiti, Gautemala/St. Kitts, Brittish Virgin Islands, and Aruba/Trinidad and Tobago. And that last grouping is the best chance for the United States to sneak into the second round. Because, the basic problem the National team faces is, The teams they have a chance to pass, save Honduras, all control their own destinies. They all face, for the most part, win and advance situtations, and do not need another team to wobble. They are all leading their groups for a reason, because they are all good teams. 

The United States are facing an uphill battle to advance to the second round. It is imposible, no. There is a path, but many more road that lead to dead ends.