There has been some discussion about the analyse tool (at the topic about the home advantage). I thought it deserved its own topic.

Because I have a VIP account (and a scout office level 2), I spend a total of six analyses (30 match simulations) to show the impact random has in this game on the outcome of Lost Keys United v.s. Alphen United:

29 Wins, 1 Draw, 0 Loses. Avarage: 2.80-0.23

The spreading:

1-1 : 1 time
1-0 : 7 "
2-0 : 3 "
2-1 : 2 "
3-0 : 6 "
3-1 : 1 "
4-0 : 3 "
4-1 : 3 "
5-0 : 3 "
6-0 : 1 "

It would be unlikely for my opponent to score more then ones, And for me to don't or more then six times. But I still can happen (although it didn't during this simulations).

Furthermore, there was variation at the six different analyses (not more then logical) one had a non 100 percent score, and one had four times 1-0 and one 4-1. Those outcomes where quite bad, compared to the others.

In the end, it's a game with randomness involved. I think it's fine (it should be that way), you just have to keep that in mind, when you draw conclusions from the outcome of the analyse tool. I still use it, and think it helps me a lot.

Yesterday when my home game was against the league leader Zengő I made 3 analysis our match, twice my line-up was identical at 5-3-2-sweeper, and the 3rd was 3-5-2 tactics. And all the three times the analysis gave me totally different progression
So, I think the analyze tool is too random. Not helping enough...

As I have previously said in the different post, every game (card game, dice game, board game) is based on randomness. What is important, is that one team wins almost every time in your simulation, which proves that results are not absolutely accidental.
I think the game engine is very well balanced, although much in favour of home team.

I have changed my tactics now, but I was using a 4-4-2 diamond all the league. And yesterday I was trying to study all the times I lost at home, three times I guess. And in all times the other team used 3-5-2.
Of course it's not a rule, but maybe with good defenders and a 3-5-2 could be a good way to play against a better team (my team was better) and in a away match.

@MacikaG: The randomness is not in the analysis tool. It only shows you what the match engine can give as result. If the results are random it's because the match result can't be predicted. If it's a close match that's normal. A lot of the scoring chances are 3-5%, you'd expect them to be missed, but occiasionally a few of them will be scored and then it's a big scoring game.

You can influence the amount of randomness in the way you build your team and tactics. Young players make it more random obviously, and so do unpredictable players. Playing close to your own goal with weak players also results in more randomness because of the possible corners and penalties the opponent will get.

In any case though, if the match is more or less balanced it can go either way. The analysis tool will tell you this by giving very different results. It's still useful if you know how to read the information you get from it.

What is pointed out is 'proven' by my tests. A game just have a wide range of possible outcomes, so it is just impossible to forecast it better then than that.

And you should be aware of it too. Take the match Vincent's team and mine had to day: it became 4-1. Not a score that was expected at any of my test runs. The tool suggested that Vincent's home advantage was slightly bigger, than the advantage of my stronger team, and it worked out in this case, the way it did. Such is live (and this game).

The analysis tool can give very different results with the same line up. I've done the same as Corniel has for my next match. These are my results:

analysis 1: Cambuur 3.0 points, droonyef 0.0 points
analysis 2: Cambuur 1.4 points, droonyef 1.4 points
analysis 3: Cambuur 2.0 points, droonyef 0.8 points
analysis 4: Cambuur 2.2 points, droonyef 0.4 points
analysis 5: Cambuur 3.0 points, droonyef 0.0 points
analysis 6: Cambuur 2.6 points, droonyef 0.2 points

So after I run the first analysis it seems my victory is guaranteed. When I run a second I get a very different result; the second analysis is evenly matched. The other analyses are clearly in my favor.

The results the analysis tool gave:
win:
1-0 : 3 time
2-0 : 1 time
2-1 : 3 times
3-0 : 3 times
3-1 : 3 times
3-2 : 1 time
4-0 : 2 times
4-1 : 2 times
4-2 : 1 time
5-0 : 2 times
6-0 : 1 time
draw:
1-1 : 1 time
2-2 : 3 times
3-3 : 1 time
loss:
1-2 : 3 times

This is just to give you an example of what results the analysis tool might produce. I've seen results that differ much more between the runs then the analysis shown above.

Thanks for everyone for lighting up my silly head! :-)
Arno Wiersma: I'm just wondering what will be the genuine result today evening. (If your team won't won would be a big surprise.)

And the result was.... *drum roll*

3-1

I just had a match with 3pts vs 0 pts as outcome, and expected number of goals 3.4 vs 0.6. The result was 1-1 (alas) and apart from that my star striker is injured for the deciding match tomorrow :(

Even if your winchance seem lopsided, that's no guarantee you'll win. This match might cost me the championship, so it's really disappointing that the end result was so far apart from the simulations.

Important to know is that in the simulations the change to get an injured player is not taken into account. So if a crucial player will get injured in the real match the outcome could change dramatically.

My real game was a 4-0. (With another goaly from my side, but I guess that was not of big influence this time)