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English >> Questions
Transfer win chance (25)
'Schorny: if you read what i wrote, then you would know that it isint the value of the bid
Garfman and Danh: this thread was not for duscussing the system and whether you like it, but trying to understand the system.'
You only trying to ask the 26% then now say you want to understand the system. How are you suppose to understand the system with only 2 scenarios? So which is your question, understand system, your just your 26%?
Garfman and Danh: this thread was not for duscussing the system and whether you like it, but trying to understand the system.'
You only trying to ask the 26% then now say you want to understand the system. How are you suppose to understand the system with only 2 scenarios? So which is your question, understand system, your just your 26%?
If understand the whole system, no, with only these two scenarios, no one could analyse the WHOLE system.
@FlameTermite:
You just said you tested a bit with the amount of money you bid - but I still stand by what I said.
I'm pretty sure I understand the transfer system pretty well and the only option is that x1 and x2 have the maximum bid bonus or x3 has the "minimum bid malus". Something like that.
There are only 5 factors that define the winning chance: the 4 yes Options and the bid amount.
There is a special situation where one player gets the highest bid amount bonus while not bidding the most - but this does not really matter here (because we don't know how much each player bid).
Do you have the concrete bid amounts? You can try to ask the players after the transfer is complete to get the real picture. But without these infos it's impossible to tell what else it could be (if not the money).
You just said you tested a bit with the amount of money you bid - but I still stand by what I said.
I'm pretty sure I understand the transfer system pretty well and the only option is that x1 and x2 have the maximum bid bonus or x3 has the "minimum bid malus". Something like that.
There are only 5 factors that define the winning chance: the 4 yes Options and the bid amount.
There is a special situation where one player gets the highest bid amount bonus while not bidding the most - but this does not really matter here (because we don't know how much each player bid).
Do you have the concrete bid amounts? You can try to ask the players after the transfer is complete to get the real picture. But without these infos it's impossible to tell what else it could be (if not the money).
[QUOTE]
How are you sure that when you up your bid, someone else didnt?
And i answered 'x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.' 'you got 5% because u bid the lowest and with all the No'
The 2nd part
"v: I didn't show myself in this case as it didn't have any say. With me it looked like this:
x1 ? No No Yes Yes 37%
x2 ? No No No Yes 32%
x3 ? Yes Yes Yes Yes 26%
Me ? No No No No 5%
So that doesn't really say anything. It is understandable that he didn't really want to join my team.. =b
In this case the bid values were around £75000 and i just made a bit for the lowest i could.
In the case were i tested if the bid value had an effect there were 4 bidders and it looked something like this:
x1 ? Yes Yes No Yes 52%
Me ? Yes Yes Yes Yes 25%
x2 ? No No Yes Yes 17%
x3 ? No No No No 6%
The bids started at £140000, and i just started out with the lowest bid. Then i placed a bid for the highest amount i could, around £170000, but that changed nothing"
There are no question mark at all
-------------------
'Why does x3 have 26%, when it has way more yes's?' that was your question.
About the highest bid you could u increase from what price to what price. (1 dollar to 2??, of course there is no impact, but maximum did you bid, the maximum of your club funds??? do you have enough money to bid the maximum possible)
-------------------
'Schorny: if you read what i wrote, then you would know that it isint the value of the bid
Garfman and Danh: this thread was not for duscussing the system and whether you like it, but trying to understand the system.'
You only trying to ask the 26% then now say you want to understand the system. How are you suppose to understand the system with only 2 scenarios? So which is your question, understand system, your just your 26%?
-------------------
If understand the whole system, no, with only these two scenarios, no one could analyse the WHOLE system.
[/QUOTE]
You can just edit your first post as you come up with new reasons not to back down. =)
Why should there be a questionmark in the second part? He asks for more info, not new questions.
"
'Why does x3 have 26%, when it has way more yes's?' that was your question.
About the highest bid you could u increase from what price to what price. (1 dollar to 2??, of course there is no impact, but maximum did you bid, the maximum of your club funds??? do you have enough money to bid the maximum possible)
"
I don't really know what to respond. Why did you write this?
For the last part:
- It is not MY 26%, it is someone else's. I waited for this exact example so that I woulnd't get those resonses.
- How are those questions not related? By finding out some more about why x3 got 26%, when he had 4 yes's compared to x1 with half the yes's, and a higher win chance, I understand more of the system.
No one forced you to answer, but if you do, you should think about your answer before you write it, at least read what have been posted before you answer. I can see that you aren't happy to be called out for not thinking before you write. You might have had something relevant to say, which I just didn't understand from your first post, which is why I qustioned it in the first place. It turns out that you didn't have anything to contribute, so just let it go? There is no reason to try and attack the question I asked from weird angles just to defend yourself.
How are you sure that when you up your bid, someone else didnt?
And i answered 'x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.' 'you got 5% because u bid the lowest and with all the No'
The 2nd part
"v: I didn't show myself in this case as it didn't have any say. With me it looked like this:
x1 ? No No Yes Yes 37%
x2 ? No No No Yes 32%
x3 ? Yes Yes Yes Yes 26%
Me ? No No No No 5%
So that doesn't really say anything. It is understandable that he didn't really want to join my team.. =b
In this case the bid values were around £75000 and i just made a bit for the lowest i could.
In the case were i tested if the bid value had an effect there were 4 bidders and it looked something like this:
x1 ? Yes Yes No Yes 52%
Me ? Yes Yes Yes Yes 25%
x2 ? No No Yes Yes 17%
x3 ? No No No No 6%
The bids started at £140000, and i just started out with the lowest bid. Then i placed a bid for the highest amount i could, around £170000, but that changed nothing"
There are no question mark at all
-------------------
'Why does x3 have 26%, when it has way more yes's?' that was your question.
About the highest bid you could u increase from what price to what price. (1 dollar to 2??, of course there is no impact, but maximum did you bid, the maximum of your club funds??? do you have enough money to bid the maximum possible)
-------------------
'Schorny: if you read what i wrote, then you would know that it isint the value of the bid
Garfman and Danh: this thread was not for duscussing the system and whether you like it, but trying to understand the system.'
You only trying to ask the 26% then now say you want to understand the system. How are you suppose to understand the system with only 2 scenarios? So which is your question, understand system, your just your 26%?
-------------------
If understand the whole system, no, with only these two scenarios, no one could analyse the WHOLE system.
[/QUOTE]
You can just edit your first post as you come up with new reasons not to back down. =)
Why should there be a questionmark in the second part? He asks for more info, not new questions.
"
'Why does x3 have 26%, when it has way more yes's?' that was your question.
About the highest bid you could u increase from what price to what price. (1 dollar to 2??, of course there is no impact, but maximum did you bid, the maximum of your club funds??? do you have enough money to bid the maximum possible)
"
I don't really know what to respond. Why did you write this?
For the last part:
- It is not MY 26%, it is someone else's. I waited for this exact example so that I woulnd't get those resonses.
- How are those questions not related? By finding out some more about why x3 got 26%, when he had 4 yes's compared to x1 with half the yes's, and a higher win chance, I understand more of the system.
No one forced you to answer, but if you do, you should think about your answer before you write it, at least read what have been posted before you answer. I can see that you aren't happy to be called out for not thinking before you write. You might have had something relevant to say, which I just didn't understand from your first post, which is why I qustioned it in the first place. It turns out that you didn't have anything to contribute, so just let it go? There is no reason to try and attack the question I asked from weird angles just to defend yourself.
@schorny: Okay.. I'll experiment more with higest bid in next window then. It just seems weird to me now, if it is that.
unfortyunately, I don't know what the rest of the clubs bid. And i can't remember which clubs it were
unfortyunately, I don't know what the rest of the clubs bid. And i can't remember which clubs it were
This is an open forum, I can answer and ask anything I like. What you meant by 'those' if your only question is 'Why does x3 have 26%, when it has way more yes's?', and I showed the explaination and you can't seem to read it
'For 1st scenario, you got 5% because u bid the lowest and with all the No. x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes. x2 and x1 bid around the same but since x1 got more yes, he got more percentage.'
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
No one forced you to listen and absorb all the answers, but if you do, you should think about your question before you write it, at least write all information that you think people would need before your post so normal people understands. I can see that you can't think logically before you ask a question. You might have had something relevant to ask, which no one understands all your posts, which is why I asked for more information. It turns out that you didn't understand, so just let it go? There is reason why I copy your paragraph so that you can understand.
'For 1st scenario, you got 5% because u bid the lowest and with all the No. x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes. x2 and x1 bid around the same but since x1 got more yes, he got more percentage.'
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
x3 got 26% maybe he bid low but have all the yes.
No one forced you to listen and absorb all the answers, but if you do, you should think about your question before you write it, at least write all information that you think people would need before your post so normal people understands. I can see that you can't think logically before you ask a question. You might have had something relevant to ask, which no one understands all your posts, which is why I asked for more information. It turns out that you didn't understand, so just let it go? There is reason why I copy your paragraph so that you can understand.
Why are you getting so personal and defensive?
Sure you can write what you want where you want, i haven't said otherwise.
I have not absorbed a single post you wrote, i just tried to figure out if there were something relevant in the first one you posted.
I have thought about my question. I wrote the information i thought people needed, v wanted some actual bid values, so i provided them. I still can't see what is wrong with the question and i assume that you can't either, as you haven't said anything specific? You just say that it is illogical and lacks information, you just can't say why and what. It is like saying that someone is wrong and then not tell why :D
When did you ask for more information? You have been on a defensive ramp since i asked into your post.
Sure you can write what you want where you want, i haven't said otherwise.
I have not absorbed a single post you wrote, i just tried to figure out if there were something relevant in the first one you posted.
I have thought about my question. I wrote the information i thought people needed, v wanted some actual bid values, so i provided them. I still can't see what is wrong with the question and i assume that you can't either, as you haven't said anything specific? You just say that it is illogical and lacks information, you just can't say why and what. It is like saying that someone is wrong and then not tell why :D
When did you ask for more information? You have been on a defensive ramp since i asked into your post.
@Mikkel:
Are you sure you all data are correct? Am I the only one who finds it weird that:
x1 first has No No Yes Yes and later Yes Yes No Yes
x2 first has No No No Yes and later No No Yes Yes
x3 first has Yes Yes Yes Yes and later No No No No
x4 (you) has No No No No and later Yes Yes Yes Yes?
Ok, you obviously mistakenly switched x3 and x4 but what about others?
My conclusion is that in second case x2 is x1 from first, and 52% guy is a new bidder x5 - that would explain different number of yes's and no's. The enigma here is where has x2 from first case gone? All other things would have sense then.
What i think happenned:
x3 bid for minimum yust like you did. x1 and x2 bid for some higher value but NOT maximum!
First case solved!
While you were pondering your options somebody else made a maximum bid and with 3 of 4 yes's he took the lead
so x5 with maximum bid took 52%
you with maximum bid took 25 and with overbid get ahead of x1, x2 and x3. you are up from 5 to 25%
x1 is down from 37 to 17%
x3 is down from 26 to 6%
x2 is down from 32 to ? (0%?)
There are 2 mysteries left: Where is x2 in second case and your 2 bids for as you say different amounts.
Or there is one more possibility but not very likely one: x2 is actually x5! You wonder how? He could buy one player with same language and nationality if he was short by one in both categories! With 2 more yes's AND maximum bid he would be 52% guy for sure.
Now only question left is your 2 bids. Is it by ANY chance possible that you actually made 2 SAME AMOUNT bids? If yes then all questions would be answered. If no then i don't know how to explain it...
Satisfied with this analysis?
Are you sure you all data are correct? Am I the only one who finds it weird that:
x1 first has No No Yes Yes and later Yes Yes No Yes
x2 first has No No No Yes and later No No Yes Yes
x3 first has Yes Yes Yes Yes and later No No No No
x4 (you) has No No No No and later Yes Yes Yes Yes?
Ok, you obviously mistakenly switched x3 and x4 but what about others?
My conclusion is that in second case x2 is x1 from first, and 52% guy is a new bidder x5 - that would explain different number of yes's and no's. The enigma here is where has x2 from first case gone? All other things would have sense then.
What i think happenned:
x3 bid for minimum yust like you did. x1 and x2 bid for some higher value but NOT maximum!
First case solved!
While you were pondering your options somebody else made a maximum bid and with 3 of 4 yes's he took the lead
so x5 with maximum bid took 52%
you with maximum bid took 25 and with overbid get ahead of x1, x2 and x3. you are up from 5 to 25%
x1 is down from 37 to 17%
x3 is down from 26 to 6%
x2 is down from 32 to ? (0%?)
There are 2 mysteries left: Where is x2 in second case and your 2 bids for as you say different amounts.
Or there is one more possibility but not very likely one: x2 is actually x5! You wonder how? He could buy one player with same language and nationality if he was short by one in both categories! With 2 more yes's AND maximum bid he would be 52% guy for sure.
Now only question left is your 2 bids. Is it by ANY chance possible that you actually made 2 SAME AMOUNT bids? If yes then all questions would be answered. If no then i don't know how to explain it...
Satisfied with this analysis?
@v
Yeah the data is correct. I cannot see why you doubt that? Nothing has changed, I haven't written 2 different things anywhere. So no I didn't obviously switch anything.
If you read it again, you can see that i am talking about two different scenarios, nothing changed, there were not made 5 bids, it is 2 different players.
So your analysis is useless, as it is analysing nonexistent data.
Thanks otherwise. =)
Yeah the data is correct. I cannot see why you doubt that? Nothing has changed, I haven't written 2 different things anywhere. So no I didn't obviously switch anything.
If you read it again, you can see that i am talking about two different scenarios, nothing changed, there were not made 5 bids, it is 2 different players.
So your analysis is useless, as it is analysing nonexistent data.
Thanks otherwise. =)
@Mikkel
As you can see i was distracted while reading your answer so i somehow got impression you were talking about same player. So my doubts were in context of that mistake. Now that this is cleared let's go back to analysis:
While i mentioned x1 and x2 (in first case) obviously got higher bids than x3, this was because I whitnessed this many times as i observed many transfers i was involved in. Every time i raised my bid I got higher percantage. so it's not assumption, it's fact - when you make higher bid your chances are higher. So nothing wrong with the first case player unless you are positive (as you said to schorny you don't know that) they all bid the same amount. That would be weird and something i never witnessed before.
What is strange is your second case player. If you successfully bid highest amount possible while having all 4 yes's your percentages should also be highest so in my opinion this could only be a bug.
As you can see i was distracted while reading your answer so i somehow got impression you were talking about same player. So my doubts were in context of that mistake. Now that this is cleared let's go back to analysis:
While i mentioned x1 and x2 (in first case) obviously got higher bids than x3, this was because I whitnessed this many times as i observed many transfers i was involved in. Every time i raised my bid I got higher percantage. so it's not assumption, it's fact - when you make higher bid your chances are higher. So nothing wrong with the first case player unless you are positive (as you said to schorny you don't know that) they all bid the same amount. That would be weird and something i never witnessed before.
What is strange is your second case player. If you successfully bid highest amount possible while having all 4 yes's your percentages should also be highest so in my opinion this could only be a bug.