Numpty >> friday november 1 - 16:51, Edited friday november 1 - 16:56

I read a story on the BBC that I thought was rather amusing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c748kmvwyv9o

Here's a summary.

Two Australian mathematicians have called into question an old adage, that if given an infinite amount of time, a monkey pressing keys on a typewriter would eventually write the complete works of William Shakespeare.

Sydney-based researchers Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta found that the time it would take for a typing monkey to replicate Shakespeare's plays, sonnets and poems would be longer than the lifespan of our universe.

As well as looking at the abilities of a single monkey, the study also did a series of calculations based on the current global population of chimpanzees, which is roughly 200,000.

The results indicated that even if every chimp in the world was enlisted and able to type at a pace of one key per second until the end of the universe, they wouldn't even come close to typing out the Bard's works.

There would be a 5% chance that a single chimp would successfully type the word "bananas" in its own lifetime. 

So I checked ... 

Well I can't do the maths for the whole works of Shakespeare, but I can do "bananas". 

I had to start with a few assumptions.

How many keys? My own keyboard has over 100 keys, but a standard typewriter had 44 character keys plus shift (x2), shift lock, tab, backspace, spacebar etc. making at least 50. 

How long does a chimpanzee live? According to wikipedia the average lifespan in the wild is 15 years. 

I did 2 different calculations. 

1. I started by being very generous

The chimp has a non-standard typewriter with only 26 keys and lives for 20 years.  He can also match a professional typist at 30 words per minute - and types constantly for 20 years without eating or sleeping and doesn't get RSI. The task is to randomly type the word "bananas" that will then be followed by another letter since he has no spacebar. 

My calculation shows that one chimp has a 4% chance of typing "bananas". Which is a similar result to the researchers and suggests that they also assumed a 26 key typewriter. 

2. I'll be slightly more 'realistic'

I gave the chimp a typewriter with 50 keys and he has to type "bananas " with a space because "bananasxyz" is not really a word. However, he still lives for 20 years, never sleeps and carries on typing at 30 words per minute.  

This calculation shows that one chimp has a chance of less than one in 100,000 of typing "bananas ". Indeed if the worldwide population of 200,000 chimps all joined in there is only an 80% chance that at least one of them would be successful.  

Lee >> saturday november 2 - 11:43

You have way too much time on your hands :)

SNAgy >> monday november 4 - 10:27

That's why sometimes Kí Klaksvík can win over Ferencvaros... (or maybe there are some other causes too...)