Blackwhite >> friday september 29 - 12:47

All it takes is the sale of the goalkeeper for Jaypridee Town to lose 5 matches to date and concede 29 goals.

But also loss of the championship title and the English Cup

==> All this with the sole sale of Bernard Tibon

This brings me to this question:

• Does the goalkeeper have too big an influence on the success of a team ?

Numpty >> friday september 29 - 16:02, Edited friday september 29 - 16:29

Possibly.

But you have to consider the replacement and not just the loss of the keeper,  A world class keeper was replaced with one that is a little below average for the division. 

And if you exclude the weakest teams and only consider the teams that are at least competitive in most matches then he's one of the weakest keepers in the competitive part of the league. Besides which, the youth keeper also had to cover an injury.

Credit to Bakerman, I was expecting them to do worse than they have. Looking at goals conceded they are currently joint 10th. But they've also scored a ton of goals ... 

Numpty >> sunday october 1 - 16:04

After my limited success with my predictions, I was wondering if anyone wanted to try a league predictions competition for next season? 

If there's enough interest I'll try and come up with a format. Suggestions welcome.  

Monk >> monday october 2 - 14:47

Great idea. Spearman's rank of correlation coefficient is the obvious one that springs to mind. 

Numpty >> monday october 2 - 17:24

That gives me an idea.  

I guess if I invent some kind of fiendishly complicated statistical algorithm that no-one understands I can alway fix it so that I win. :D

Dragontao >> monday october 2 - 17:53

I'll just run it through SPSS.

Monk >> tuesday october 3 - 05:19

You techies :-D

Blackwhite >> tuesday october 3 - 07:44

Good Idea Man

Numpty >> tuesday october 3 - 12:44, Edited tuesday october 3 - 12:53

As there appears to be some interest here is my initial proposal. Naturally this might change depending on feedback. 

I want to try and keep it very simple. Everyone makes their predictions of the final league placings of all 20 teams. 

You score the following points for each team in the table:

• +5 - for a correct prediction 
• +3 - one place different (higher or lower)
• +2 - two places different
• +1 - three places different
• +0 - four places different
• -1 - 5 to 9 places different
• -2 - 10 or more places different

So 100 points are available if all 20 teams are predicted correctly.

These points will be awarded at the halfway stage after 19 games and then double points will be awarded for the final league positions at the end of the season. Giving a maximum score of 300 points. 

There needs to be a deadline for entering. Entries should be posted by the end of day (game week) 5. Anyone can still enter after the deadline subject to a penalty of 5 points per day. 

I've tried to strike a balance here between players still being transferred and the league season starting - and also giving people enough time to enter. The last day of the transfer window is day 5 and I believe the first 2 matches are played on days 3 and 6. Another option is to have the end of day 2 as the deadline if people think this would be better.  

Monk >> tuesday october 3 - 15:32

Looks good to me.

Numpty >> tuesday october 3 - 16:07, Edited tuesday october 3 - 17:55

Bonus Points

This is an option that adds another twist. I'm happy to abandon it if others think it's not necessary. 

It seems to me that it would be easy (and fairly lazy) to use the previous season's final league standings as a guide to the following season. So to discourage this 1 bonus point will be awarded for each team that is predicted to finish in a different position to the previous season. This is awarded at the start. Promoted teams will be considered to be at the bottom of the table in the order that they finish in league 2. (In the event that 18th gets relegated in the play-offs and 19th doesn't then we will consider them to have finished in 18th instead.)

So, for instance, if Seaburn finish 1st as seems likely then predicting them to finish 1st next season will not score you a bonus point. If you predict them to come anywhere else then you get the bonus point.  

Stephen >> tuesday october 3 - 18:39, Edited tuesday october 3 - 18:56

The travelling Seaburn fans have made the journey to heavens light in their unnamed stadium in an unnamed town. It makes the route planning trickier than it ought to be.

But despite assorted satnavs spewing out various coordinates and destinations, the hordes have still found their way to their journeys' end. Determination and certainty growing with each travel sweet that tonight is the final destination: the first league title for five seasons. Songs have been sung, pints have been sunk and now all that remains is to watch the yellow and green army take the field and fight for those three points...

EDIT: And that's it, the whistle goes. Who cares where this is now? It's paradise for the Beach fans!

BakerMan >> tuesday october 3 - 19:52

Normal service is resumed with a league and cup double for the mighty Beach - congrats Stephen.

Pretty happy with how my season has worked out after the Tibon experiment came to an end. The fight for 3rd will go down to the final day, made some progress in Europe and a slightly unfortunate cup exit when my 16 year old backup goalkeeper had to play. Plus the bonus of a Youth Cup win. Finances back on track, so the question is, do I try and buy a GK in the mid-30s value and see how that works out...

Lee >> tuesday october 3 - 21:28

Congratulations Stephen - like a patient predator stalking his prey, you have finally emerged from the shadows (sounded good in my head; looks shite in words).

The 2nd feel-good story of the season is the Pixels continuing to prove their manager wrong (definitely a bottom 3 finish next season - no bonus point for predicting that!).

Stephen >> wednesday october 4 - 20:20

Thanks lads.

To celebrate, the mighty Beach put on a show tonight. Just the 15 goals scored, though raging about the two conceded near the end. I don't think I've ever scored 15 before and certainly never had a player scoring five and assisting three. Hoskins wanted some personal glory after missing last night's match!