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英语 >> 疑难解答
Ageing Factor (7)
Following on from an earlier question I thought it would be a useful reference to document how players age with regard to their Ageing Factor.
The decrease is non-linear, and I believe that there are 4 separate stages that each have a different rate of decline.
1. The Ageing Factor remains constant at 100% up until the age of around 21 years 18 weeks.
2. From 21y18w it declines at a rate of 1% every 30 weeks until the age of around 26 years (possibly a little earlier).
3. From age 26 to 30 it declines at a rate of 1% every 21-22 weeks.
4. From age 30 onwards it declines at a rate of 1% every 12-13 weeks, which is roughly 4% per year. This is why outfield players drop off quite quickly once they reach 30 years of age.
Since the reported Age Factor is a rounded value, how do you know exactly what value to use if you're doing a calculation? So here is a quick reference that will give a more accurate percentage:
Edit
The correct formula has now been posted below, but this table may still be useful as a quick reference. I have also amended any minor errors.
Age Factor - Age
- 100% - 21y18w
- 99.00% - 21y48w
- 98.00% - 22y26w
- 97.00% - 23y04w
- 96.00% - 23y34w
- 95.00% - 24y12w
- 94.00% - 24y42w
- 93.00% - 25y20w
- 92.03% - 25y49w
- 91.69% - 25y50w
- 91.00% - 26y13w
- 89.98% - 26y35w
- 89.02% - 27y04w
- 88.00% - 27y26w
- 86.98% - 27y48w
- 86.02% - 28y17w
- 85.00% - 28y39w
- 83.98% - 29y09w
- 83.02% - 29y30w
- 82.05% - 29y51w
- 82.20% - 30y00w
- 82.04% - 30y02w
- 81.00% - 30y15w
- 80.04% - 30y27w
- 79.00% - 30y40w
- 78.04% - 31y00w
- 77.00% - 31y13w
- 76.04% - 31y25w
- 75.00% - 31y38w
- 74.04% - 31y50w
- 73.00% - 32y11w
- 72.04% - 32y23w
- 71.00% - 32y36w
- 70.04% - 32y48w
For other values use the formula below.
https://rockingsoccer.com/en/soccer/forum/home-en?topic=85161
The problem is that he couldn't get the actual values, there are some 0.0X difference with his method.
Good shout! I'll also see if I can produce a formula at some point.
So, I've finally managed to produce what I believe is the correct formula for the Ageing Factor.
1. The Ageing Factor remains constant at 100% up until the age of 21 years 18 weeks.
2. Starting at 21y19w it declines at a rate of 1% every 30 weeks until the age of 25 years 49 weeks. Which is 1.7333% per season.
- AF = 1 - 0.001*(x/3) = where x is age in weeks greater than 21y18w
3. There is a noncontiguous change at age 25y50w, when the players ages by the equivalent of about 10 weeks.
4. From age 25y50w the AF declines at a rate of 3% every 65 weeks, which is 0.6% every 13 weeks, 0.0461538% per week, or 2.40% per season. This continues until the age of 29 years 51 weeks.
- AF = 0.916 - 0.03*(y/65) - where y is age in weeks greater than 26y00w
(Formula is based on 91.6% at age 26y00w for simplicity. Also use with the previous 2 weeks where the increment becomes positive.)
5. There is a further noncontiguous change at age 30 years 0 weeks, where the player gets younger by the equivalent of 3-4 weeks. Yes, younger!
6. From age 30 until 47 years 18 weeks the AF declines from 82.2% at a rate of 2% every 25 weeks, which is 0.08% per week and 4.16% per season.
- AF = 0.822 - 0.0008*z - where z is age in weeks greater than 30y00w
7. The Ageing Factor remains constant at 10.0% from the age of 47 years 19 weeks onwards.
(Eddie's formula, mentioned above, is very close but is not 100% accurate.)
I want to acknowledge the contribution of Sazz, who helped provide me with data for analysis.
I am getting older. I only work at 10% :)
Link to thread discussing how the Age Factor affects the decline rate of Blocking and Keepers.
https://rockingsoccer.com/en/soccer/forum/home-en/680?topic=69882