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English >> Questions
Keeper's peak age (17)
In your experience, when does a keeper hit his peak? 30? 35? I know it's lower than that for other positions.
It depends on the player and the training facilities, but it's generally somewhere around age 37-38-39.
It's possible to estimate this with a known player. Let's take Durrance, for example:
https://rockingsoccer.com/en/soccer/info/player-1315040
His age is currently 37year, 35weeks (50%) and Blocking is 9.73. Without any further training his Blocking value will drop to roughly 9.53 in 1 season.
With Talent of 7.10 trained in FA 4 with 2 staff he will earn c. 75,000 xp per season plus around 15,000 xp from playing matches (maybe a little more). This will earn 7 extra Blocking clicks, which will be equivalent to around 0.29 more on his Blocking. So I would calculate his Blocking rising from 9.73 to 9.82, and predict that he will likely get slightly better in the next year, although his other stats will drop slightly.
The peak is obviously reached when the rate of decline matches the rate the player earns xp to offset the losses.
As I see old players are far to strong in this game!
More details on Durrance - I estimate that his current base Blocking value is 231.
His rate of earning xp will get him roughly 7 more per season, so his base Blocking will rise to 238, 245, 252, 259, 266 etc. over the next 5 seasons.
With the Aging Factor I would estimate his actual Blocking as follows:
- 38year, 35weeks (238) Blocking 9.82 (AF 46.4% estimated)
- 39year, 35weeks (245) Blocking 9.87 (AF 42.2%)
- 40year, 35weeks (252) Blocking 9.89 (AF 38.0%)
- 41year, 35weeks (259) Blocking 9.87 (AF 33.8%)
- 42year, 35weeks (266) Blocking 9.81 (AF 29.6%)
- 43year, 35weeks (273) Blocking 9.69 (AF 25.4%)
- 44year, 35weeks (280) Blocking 9.50 (AF 21.2%)
So with Durrance he would seem to peak around age 40, although he is obviously an extreme example.
Another important factor in the peak age of a player is the effect of being trained in better facilities when they are older. This pushes their peak age a little higher than it would have been if their training had been consistent all the way through.
A player trained in a YC 10 would not have earned as much xp as he would have done in an FA 4, so he has less to lose. He therefore reaches a lower peak and declines at a slower rate and as a result peaks a bit later.
Players trained in a high level FA from the start (and younger) will peak earlier than the current generation of 30-somethings.
Thank you Numpty. You've been informative. I was hoping for a different answer, since my new-found knowledge complicates my current situation. I know what I need to do now nevertheless.
Numpty you have to take account of the goalkeeper's speed also. I think that Durrance after the age of 40 will start conceding goals due to low speed.
True @PMK, I agree. I did mention that in my first post "although his other stats will drop slightly (in the next year)". If I included all the detail the posts might be 3 times as long and I probably write too much already :)
It was simpler to concentrate on the main skill which is indicative of where the peak might be. The loss of the other stats (mainly speed) will give a slightly earlier peak and in fact I took this into account when I said 'around 40' rather than being too specific about 40y35w.
My main purpose was always to give a rough idea rather than trying to be exact, which is impossible with estimates.
To put some numbers on it I would estimate that his Speed will drop by roughly 0.37 per season. Since Speed contributes 10% towards Blocking then his effective Blocking value will fall by 0.037 per season. If you deduct this from the above table it makes the peak roughly 1 year earlier. So around 39y35w rather than the 40y35w suggested by Blocking alone.
In addition, besides the loss of the primary skill(s) the lower stats for secondary skills will in general make him a worse player. But we aren't any given specific details to work with.
You can train speed though :D I usually do if an old player is valuable for atleast 2 seasons
That's a fair point Taavi. Although it will have little effect on the peak age.
By my reckoning 1 Speed training on a keeper aged around 40 will have roughly the same benefit as 1 extra Blocking. So if the cost is significantly less than 13k xp then it's probably worth it.
Durrance update.
As of today, his age is 38year, 47weeks (45%) and his Blocking is 9.84. I would estimate that he's had 240 trainings.
Will be a top keeper at 48? :D
Probably @Taavi. There's quite a quick drop off once they get to their mid 40s, but my guess is Durrance will still be good enough for many L1 teams by the time he's 48.
At 48 years old, the only thing Durrance needs is "En"durance.
Another Durrance update.
As of today, his age is 40 years, 9 weeks (40%) and his Blocking is 9.89.
These figures are rounded and more accurate values are an age factor of 39.88%, Blocking 9.8937 with 249 Blocking trainings. This is in line with my earlier estimate above.
Edit - and another.
Age 40 years, 10 weeks (39.8%) Blocking 9.928 (250 trainings) Value 36.00
Nearing the flat part of the curve but currently still going upwards it seems. Growth will accelerate slightly during the early part of the season as a result of match xp.