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English >> General discussion

Museums and bad strategy (12)

eng holt >> sunday september 20 - 13:32, Edited sunday september 20 - 13:43

(All calculations in RSD)

(Counting starts from level 2 cause level one cost and profit values seem arbitary and are impossible to fit into the equations)

(I shall not be explaining as to HOW I reached to the equations,simply because I cannot use MathJax here)

(I assume that you start the construction of the next level as soon as the construction is over.I'll put a parameter later)


I shall get straight to the point.


There are two main strategies that managers employ:

1)Build the museum till a certain level and stop

2)Build the museum endlessly

Barring the initial construction cost of 500,000 RSD, the bulding cost grows linearly at a rate of 20,000 RSD per level.Meanwhile, the weekly profit follows a straightforward formula of Weekly Profit=38(x^2) + 677 x (Where x= Museum level - 1)

First approach:

I calculated the amount of time it takes to offset the costs once you build to a certain level and stay there.

This is given by the equation [y=(1.9x^4+59.066x^3 - 9644.401 x^2 -180701.565 x-500000)/(38x^2+677x)]

So we see that the return time is absolutely horrendous for the starting few levels ie. around 950 days for level 2;310 days for level 10;115 days for level 50 etc.

It accelerates rapidly out near level 60(49 days for level 60,16 days for level 65) and you break even at level 67[Museum level 68].From then onwards you're laughing your way to the bank.(Eg. close to 2 million at level 220)

EDIT:I just realised that these calculations are without office,and I can't be bothered to enter in that now.I'll do it later.

eng holt
Newbie
Registered2013-05-18
eng Stephen >> sunday september 20 - 20:37

What’s this thread trying to show @holt?

For me, the museum construction plan is simple: build it when there’s nothing better to build.

If you’re a relatively new club in the game, then it seems to me that efforts should probably be on getting your stadium to as high a level as you can as quickly as possible.

eng Stephen
Head Admin
Registered2013-08-28
eng Seaburn Beach
il Numpty >> sunday september 20 - 21:06, Edited sunday september 20 - 22:13

I'm also rather confused by your numbers. There is no 'acceleraton' and no break even level as they all give an eventual profit. Your formula is wrong too.

If you ignore the first 2 levels (which don't cost much) the return on the investment for all the other levels is around 19-20% per season - without staff. So they all take a little over 5 seasons to return the investment. After that you're in profit. 

One aspect that may not be obvious is that as the construction time and costs increase wih each level the amount invested per day only increases slightly with each level. 

Some examples to explain what I mean.    (All without staff)

  • Level 2 - costs 200,000 RSD over 3 days, so 66,667 invested per day and it takes 460 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 3 - costs 220,000 RSD over 3.2 days, so 68,750 invested per day and it takes 278 days to return the investment. 
  • Level 12 - costs 400,000 RSD over 5 days, so 80,000 invested per day and it takes 272 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 37 - costs 900,000 RSD over 10 days, so 90,000 invested per day and it takes 268 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 62 - costs 1,400,000 RSD over 15 days, so 93,333 invested per day and it takes 267 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 87 - costs 1,900,000 RSD over 20 days, so 95,000 invested per day and it takes 266 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 100 - costs 2,160,000 RSD over 22.6 days, so 95,575 invested per day and it takes 266 days to return the investment.  
  • Level 200  - would (in theory) cost 4,160,000 RSD over 42.6 days, so 97,653 invested per day and take 265.24 days to return the investment. 

So as you can see although the higher levels do seem a lot more attractive they are in fact all pretty much the same. You invest roughly the same amount per day and it takes a similar length of time to return the investment. However, once you add on the extra building time the higher levels actually take a little longer before returning the investment.

If you want various formulae for the museum, you can find them here:

https://rockingsoccer.com/en/soccer/forum/home-en/1?topic=86116

il Numpty
User
Registered2018-10-19
eng Heath Hornets
au davo >> monday september 21 - 00:23

The museum is vitally important. It is the only non-capped income left in the game. 

The best long term strategy in the game for managers who are finding it difficult to conquer their leagues, would be to throw 2 staff in the museum for a couple of years.

In the coming seasons we are going to see people with high level facilities start haemorrhaging money with large wage bills making them unviable. With very little option to make money on the TM, it is going to be necessary to downgrade. I think, without a high level museum covering the costs, the maximum sustainable level may be a L4 YA and FA. (And by high level I mean 200+ if you want to maintain a FA4/YA5 and 250+ if you want to maintain a FA5/YA4).

au davo
User
Registered2013-08-27
eng holt >> monday september 21 - 06:33

@Stephen It's slightly pointless,I was trying to find something for myself and I thought that the findings were interesting.

@Numpty Your growth formula is wrong.You won't be subtracting 640 if X=Museum level-1.

Also calculation by hand tells me that it should take me 298 days to recoup the investment for level 12.My formula says 302 days(because I took fractional days into account) while you say 271 days,so your value would be way off as we progressed further along the levels.

All of them do reach a profit obviously.My point was to find till what level would you have to build,so it if youy were to build continuously,by the time you built that level,you would have already recouped your losses.

It would make sense to build as fast as possible to level 50-60 because the museum starts becoming much more "profitable" from then on.

From then onwards,you earn more money during the building time of the museum,than what you spent on it.

@davo How much of a boost does staff provide to museums?

Beacuse even with a level 300 museum you're earning about 150 million per season.

eng holt
Newbie
Registered2013-05-18
au davo >> monday september 21 - 06:41

Staff boost is 50%

A museum with 1 L10 staff, and 1 L10 construction master will result in construction time being 35% and earnings 150%

A museum with 2 L10 staff, and 1 L10 construction master will result in construction time being 17.5% and earnings 225%

au davo
User
Registered2013-08-27
il Numpty >> monday september 21 - 07:10, Edited monday september 21 - 09:50

@ Holt I suggest you show some of your working out and then I can try and find where it is that we seem to disagree.

I'll do the example for level 12 for which you give 2 different answers. 

The cost is 400,000 RSD and the total weekly profit for level 12 is 12,027. The total weekly profit for level 11 is 10,556.

So the calculation is as follows:

  • The extra profit earned by building level 12 is 12027-10556 = 1471 per day (in-game week)
  • The time it takes to return the 400,000  investment is 400,000/1471 = 271.9 days. Which I rounded to 272 days. 

Please feel free to show how you get your 2 answers of 298 and 302 days. 

-

As for my formula for weekly profit in the other thread. If you read it I specifically excluded level 1. It should be accurate for all other levels. Reposted here for convenience:

The formula for the weekly profit is:

  • 37.8*L^2 + 602*L - 640 (RS dollars)

Where L is the museum level (excluding level 1)

[Your formula for weekly profit is demonstrably incorrect. For example it predicts 12,045 for Level 12 and 439,461 for Level 100. Both are fairly close but inaccurate.]

Here's another formula which you might find useful. To calculate the extra profit generated at each level (the difference between one level and the next).

Extra weekly profit generated at Level L is:

  • 37.8 * (2L - 1) + 602 

Where L is the museum level (excluding levels 1 and 2)

A worked example for level 12 would give you: 

Extra weekly profit = 37.8 * 23 + 602 = 1471.4 

il Numpty
User
Registered2018-10-19
eng Heath Hornets
il Numpty >> monday september 21 - 07:46, Edited monday september 21 - 07:59

Just to add this for the sake of clarity. 

You should always build the museum when you can do nothing else. The level doesn't matter.

They all invest a similar amount per day and take a little over 5 seasons to return the investment from when the building work finishes.

As explained earlier each level invests roughly the same amount per day, which is 80,000 at level 12 and the amount invested per day increases slowly with an upper limit of 100,000 per day which will never be reached. 

This is without staff. With staff then adjust the numbers accordingly.

With both a L10 construction manager and museum staff then the building rate is 35%, so c. 230,000 is invested per day at Level 12 with an upper limit of c. 286,000 per day at higher levels.

With 1 museum staff increasing the profit to 150% then each investment is repaid in about 3 1/2 seasons. With 2 x L10 staff it takes a little over 2 seasons to return the investment. (Not including the cost of staff wages.)

il Numpty
User
Registered2018-10-19
eng Heath Hornets
eng wonderlust >> monday september 21 - 12:08

It is worth considering the opportunity cost of building the museum in (or in addition to) your formulas.  Firstly, if you spend money building your museum, you are giving up the interest you would have earned on that money had it just sat in the bank.  Secondly, if you put staff in your museum, there are costs in terms of staff wages and office maintenance costs (offset by higher interest rate, sponsor money, transfer fee % kept of course), or in terms of not being able to put a staff member in another facility.

Incorporating all of that would give you a clearer picture of the true financial cost/benefit of a museum.

I don't really have time to work this all out, sadly!

eng wonderlust
User
Registered2014-10-30
eng Forever We Are Wolves
eng holt >> friday september 25 - 06:47

@Numpty I'll get back by next week.Haven't got the time unfortunately.

eng holt
Newbie
Registered2013-05-18
ee Balthazor >> saturday september 26 - 17:50

It seems more like investment into pension funds, so my little scepticism was right. When I see at some point, that next academies are too expensive for me and I'll start to build museum levels in a row, for example to level 50 somewhere after a year, it will bring back my investments after several years? When building level 50, I'll get income from level 49, but not any more from lower levels and it will take 5 seasons to get back money from any level. I'll invest some money to every level of that 50, but income will not be sum of all previous museum levels, so I have got back after year money from just some levels...

ee Balthazor
User
Registered2013-12-01
ee Dünamo Tallinn
il Numpty >> saturday september 26 - 18:20, Edited saturday september 26 - 18:31

@Balthazor. You do get income from the previous levels. 

The way to understand it, is that at each level you get extra income which is the difference between the new level and the previous one.  

The extra income at each level takes a little over 5 seasons (without staff) to repay the costs of building that level. 

So, for instance, when you build level 50 you get a daily income of 123,960 RSD which is made up of 119,616 for level 49 and 4,344 extra for level 50. 

Since the cost of building level 50 is 1,160,000 then it takes 1,160,000/4,344 =  267.0 days (plus construction time) to repay the costs for level 50. The other levels continue as before. 

il Numpty
User
Registered2018-10-19
eng Heath Hornets